Q1 2026 Fund Commentary

Commentary and opinions are provided by Portfolio Solutions Group.

Market commentary

Global equities declined over the first quarter of 2026 and underperformed global bonds, which posted a small loss. (All returns are in Canadian-dollar terms on a total-return basis.) Global equities lost momentum as tensions in the Middle East escalated, causing economic uncertainty. The conflict largely closed off the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipments, which sent oil prices higher, raising concerns about inflation and whether central banks will need to lift interest rates this year.

The U.S. equity market declined, posting a low single-digit loss. The financials sector was the weakest-performing sector. Canadian equities increased and outperformed U.S. equities, getting robust performance from the energy sector. EAFE equities posted a small gain, underperforming Canadian equities but outperforming U.S. equities. Equities in the U.K. and Japan performed well. Emerging markets equities also gained and outperformed their developed market peers, with equities in Brazil and Mexico performing well.

The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posted a total return of 0.2% over the quarter. Government bond prices increased, while government yields edged higher. Government bonds outperformed corporate bonds, which posted a small gain. Corporate bond prices were hindered from widening credit spreads (the difference in yield between corporate and government bonds). Securitization bonds posted the largest increase in the corporate bond sector. High-yield bond prices rose on a total-return basis and outperformed investment-grade corporate bonds.

Global bond yields moved higher over the quarter, and global bond prices posted a small loss. The Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all held their policy interest rates steady over the quarter. The yield on 10-year Government of Canada bonds rose from 3.43% to 3.47%. Sovereign bond yields in the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Japan also increased.

Performance

The passive allocation to international equities contributed to performance.

The actively managed Core Bond and Canadian Equity strategies detracted from performance. Franklin Templeton Core Bond detracted because of an overweight position in credit given widening credit spreads and a higher running yield. A passive overweight allocation to U.S. Equity also detracted.

Portfolio activity

The sub-advisor did not make any changes to the Portfolio during the quarter.

Outlook

The first quarter of 2026 marked a transition in market leadership, with supply issues and geopolitical risks overtaking demand cycles as the primary drivers of volatility. Escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns and increasing uncertainty around economic growth without yet showing clear evidence of economic deterioration. While headline volatility has eased at times, elevated implied volatility suggests markets are increasingly pricing a wider range of outcomes as global fragmentation, energy constraints and supply chokepoints weigh on investor confidence.

In this environment, the sub-advisor’s focus remains on portfolio resilience. The sub-advisor continues to emphasize broad diversification across regions and return drivers, avoiding overreliance on a smooth disinflation or predictable easing path. Core exposure to structural growth themes such as artificial intelligence remains important, but the sub-advisor is mindful of rising concentration risk and greater macro sensitivity in earnings expectations.

Within portfolios, alternatives, including managed futures, volatility strategies and risk parity, play a growing role in navigating shifting correlations. Fixed income remains a useful stabilizer, although less reliable than in past cycles, reinforcing the need for broader sources of diversification and liquidity as buffers against episodic shocks.